Coronavirus outbreak

Studies on epidemic forecasting

Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset.

Coronavirus outbreak

This timespace follows the World Health Organization's situation reports regarding the COVID-19 outbreak that started in Hubei, China, in January 2020. Cover photograph taken in Japan by Jérémy Stenuit.

44 cases in China Thailand confirms the first imported case of 2019-nCoV Japan confirms first imported case of 2019-nCoV First case in the Republic of Korea First case reported in the United States of America First cases in Europe and Oceania First case in Malaysia First case in Canada Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Germany report cases First cases in the Eastern Mediterranean First cases in Finland, India and the Philippines First cases reported in Italy Several new cases in Europe 10 cases reported aboard the Cruise Ship Diamond Princess First cases in Belgium First reported case in the African continent, in Egypt First case in Iran First cases in Lebanon and Israel First case in Kuwait Cases in four new countries Cases in four new countries Nine new countries and territories report cases Cases reported in five new countries Cases in Mexico and San Marino are reported Azerbaijan, Ecuador, Ireland, Monaco and Qatar report cases Six new countries and regions report cases Eight new countries report cases Argentina, Chile, Poland and Ukraine report cases Five new countries report cases Four new countries Five territories report cases Eight new countries report cases Three new countries report cases Five new countries report cases Four new countries report cases Four new countries report cases Five new countries Twelve new countries Nine new areas report cases Four new countries report cases Eight new countries report cases Montenegro reports first COVID-19 case Seven new countries report cases Six new countries report cases Six new regions report cases Four new countries report cases Three new countries report cases Four new countries report cases First cases in Laos and Lybia are reported First cases in Mali, Guine Bissau and St Kitts and Nevis Anguilla and British Virgin Islands report cases Mariana Islands report first case
282 314 581 846 1.320 2.014 2.798 4.593 6.065 7.818 9.826 11.953 14.557 17.391 20.630 24.554 28.276 31.481 34.886 37.558 40.554 43.103 45.171 46.997 49.053 50.580 51.857 71.429 (change in data) 73.332 75.204 75.748 76.769 77.794 78.811 79.331 80.239 81.109 82.294 83.652 85.403 87.137 88.948 90.869 93.091 95.324 98.192 101.927 105.586 109.577 113.702 118.319 125.260 132.758 142.534 153.517 167.511 179.111 191.127 209.839 234.073 266.073 292.142 332.930 372.757 413.467 462.684 590.299 656.690 715.083 772.025 846.251 925.050 1.005.806 1.087.374 1.192.618 1.262.304 1.330.955 1.416.426 1.498.013 1.524.375 1.586.326 1.684.281 1.767.000 1.841.123 1.912.438 1.985.135 2.069.280 2.168.778 2.225.603 2.313.897 2.395.636 2.467.524 2.543.588 2.621.436 2.701.060 2.810.214 2.902.708 2.982.647 3.050.584 3.118.590 3.197.198 3.292.489 3.383.501 3.467.466 3.553.313 3.631.354 3.709.196 3.798.341 3.894.917 3.989.304 4.077.955 4.161.925 4.238.201 4.324.731 4.400.953 4.500.850 4.603.043 4.696.927 4.779.034 4.865.014 4.964.032 5.047.263 5.164.133 5.269.157 5.378.209 5.471.145 5.563.467 5.646.287 5.748.853 5.862.914 5.990.341 6.102.571 6.229.886 6.332.783 6.443.414 6.523.294 6.655.372 6.789.308 6.931.068 7.055.611 7.159.292 7.273.272 7.398.237 7.546.633 7.680.325 7.824.695 7.948.001 8.069.298 8.204.006 8.346.709 8.529.205 8.699.133 8.859.147 9.005.740 9.127.970 9.285.799 9.450.092 9.647.552 9.825.416 10.008.027 10.186.561 10.341.165 10.509.683 10.709.940 10.930.474 11.111.775 11.307.066 11.496.761 11.666.145 11.856.591 12.066.987 12.305.301 12.541.141 12.750.996 12.978.576 13.605.764 13.846.671 13.717.903 14.105.110 14.329.637 14.569.115 14.773.738 14.987.182 15.245.954 15.546.857 15.837.722 16.100.985 16.338.004 16.555.731 16.797.844 17.053.161 17.350.591 17.646.260 17.915.901 18.155.174 18.370.708 18.254.639 18.588.525 18.857.780 18.727.238 19.139.972 19.422.544 19.721.578 19.942.155
Real-time characterization of risks of death associated with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea, 2015 Infectious diseases epidemic threats and mass gatherings: refocusing global attention on the continuing spread of the Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) Modernising epidemic science: enabling patient-centred research during epidemics Global research trends of World Health Organization’s top eight emerging pathogens Longitudinal study of age-specific pattern of coronavirus infection in Lyle’s flying fox (Pteropus lylei) in Thailand Adequacy of public health communications on H7N9 and MERS in Singapore: insights from a community based cross-sectional study MERS transmission and risk factors: a systematic review Deposition of respiratory virus pathogens on frequently touched surfaces at airports Current epidemiological status of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the world from 1.1.2017 to 17.1.2018: a cross-sectional study Coronavirus envelope protein: current knowledge Porcine transmissible gastroenteritis virus inhibits NF-κB activity via nonstructural protein 3 to evade host immune system Lessons from an active surveillance pilot to assess the pneumonia of unknown etiology surveillance system in China, 2016: the need to increase clinician participation in the detection and reporting of emerging respiratory infectious diseases Clinical outcomes among hospital patients with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection The global burden of premature mortality due to the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) using standard expected years of life lost, 2012 to 2019 Implementing One Health approaches to confront emerging and re-emerging zoonotic disease threats: lessons from PREDICT A rapid advice guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia (standard version) A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus A nationwide survey of psychological distress among Chinese people in the COVID-19 epidemic: implications and policy recommendations Mental Health and Psychological Intervention Amid COVID-19 Outbreak: Perspectives from South Korea Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: a scoping review COVID-19, SARS and MERS: are they closely related? Management of Critically Ill Adults With COVID-19 Health measures to travelers and cruise ships in response to COVID-19 Using the spike protein feature to predict infection risk and monitor the evolutionary dynamic of coronavirus Policing the Coronavirus Outbreak: Processes and Prospects for Collective Disorder How sick will the coronavirus make you? The answer may be in your genes Coronavirus papers: Viral proteins point to potential treatments Possible method for the production of a Covid-19 vaccine The many estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate Preventing bat-born viral outbreaks in future using ecological interventions Coronavirus latest: pandemic could have killed 40 million without any action
Simulating and forecasting the cumulative confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in china by Boltzmann function-based regression analyses. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia. Note from the editors: novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020. The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020. Emergence of a novel coronavirus causing respiratory illness from Wuhan, China. The association between domestic train transportation and novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in China from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven correlational report. Trend and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. [Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 by SEIR(+ CAQ) dynamic model]. [Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China]. [Study on assessing early epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease epidemic in China]. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Reporting, Epidemic Growth, and Reproduction Numbers for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Epidemic. Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak. 2019-novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate - a word of caution. The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights. Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV. Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20-28 January 2020. Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions. Risk for Transportation of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China. The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. 2019 Novel coronavirus: where we are and what we know. Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases. The basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) estimation based on exponential growth in the early outbreak in China from 2019 to 2020: A reply to Dhungana. Comments on "Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven Analysis in the early phase of the outbreak". Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis. Early phylogenetic estimate of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2. Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China. An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov). Short-term Forecasts of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13-23, 2020. Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). Real-time forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in China from February 5th to February 24th, 2020. [Analysis on epidemic situation and spatiotemporal changes of COVID-19 in Anhui]. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts. [Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China]. Backcalculating the Incidence of Infection with COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess. [Prediction modeling with data fusion and prevention strategy analysis for the COVID-19 outbreak]. Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China. Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China. First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model. Serial interval in determining the estimation of reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak. Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January-February 2020. Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality. Critical Care Utilization for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: Early Experience and Forecast During an Emergency Response. Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data. The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China. Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection. Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Estimation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Burden and Potential for International Dissemination of Infection From Iran. Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis. Imported Wuhan Coronavirus Infection: Is there any Correlation with Number of Immigrants from Endemic Area and Period after the First Outbreak? Will the Third Wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Really Come in Korea?
Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset.
Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19). COVID-19 and Italy: what next? Retrospective analysis of the possibility of predicting the COVID-19 outbreak from Internet searches and social media data, China, 2020. Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020. Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020. Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions. Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases. Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020. AI-Driven Tools for Coronavirus Outbreak: Need of Active Learning and Cross-Population Train/Test Models on Multitudinal/Multimodal Data. Covid-19 fatality is likely overestimated. Estimation of COVID-19 outbreak size in Italy. Bronchoscopy in the Age of COVID-19. Routes for COVID-19 importation in Brazil. Herd immunity - estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries. Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study. Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China. With COVID-19, modeling takes on life and death importance. Early in the epidemic: impact of preprints on global discourse about COVID-19 transmissibility.